INSIGHTS

Crude oil prices trade in negative territory for a third consecutive trading session in a row, with Brent and WTI prices falling as low as $83/b and $76.50/b respectively on Tuesday morning on growing worries for more supplies from Russia, and further interest rate hikes by major central banks ahead in the week.

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Three of the world’s largest central banks, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England will hold policy meetings in the week ahead to fight a 40-year record high inflation.

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The U.S.-based Henry hub natural gas prices broke below the much-advertised $3/mmBtu support level, while the European natural gas price of Dutch TTF extended recent losses toward the $55/MWh level, amid a combination of actors such as milder-than-normal weather, lower demand, record-high production, Freeport online, and plenty of LNG supplies.

2022, driven by both the hawkish signals from the European Central Bank on interest rates hikes, and the recent weakness of the U.S. dollar on growing expectations for a less aggressive Federal Reserve in the coming months.

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The price of the yellow metal broke above the $1,930/oz level on Friday morning for the first time since end-April 2022, driven by some safe-haven demand, a softer dollar and yields, and weaker-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic data.

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It’s possible the fossil fuel markets (crude oil, natural gas, coal) have never had a start of the year as uncertain as in 2023. We are still amidst a changing geopolitical, social, and economic environment that could impact the dynamics of the demand and supply equilibrium without so much changing or a product of the traditional price functions of demographic, rapid urbanizations, underinvestment, or technological advancement.

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Cryptocurrencies rallied sharply across the board in recent weeks on improved risk sentiment and a weaker dollar following the growing bets that Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at a slower pace in the coming months, taking some pressure off risky assets such as digital assets.

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China’s reopening optimism, the hopes for an economic rebound in China together with tight copper supplies, and low global inventories have been driving up the price of the red metal recently, gaining nearly 30% since July 2022.

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The precious metals have extended last year’s rally into 2023, driven by the ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar, and the falling bond yields on hopes for a less hawkish Federal Reserve in the next months, coupled with safe-haven demand amid fears of a potential economic recession in 2023.

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