May CPI in China came in about 1.3%, below the average estimate of 1.6%. This was mostly due to weak pork prices. Please note the CPI Index in China is heavily geared towards food. The producer price index on the other hand rose by a whopping 9% Y/Y, mainly driven by oil, metals and chemicals.
I don’t claim to be an expert on the crypto space and don’t really understand it. Yes, blockchain might prove useful, but I fail to understand why a crypto asset should be worth billions because of the usefulness of blockchain.
Inflation scares have been around for years. In fact, there has never been a moment over the past 20 years or so that market pundits have not reminded us about the dangers of inflation, as a result of Central Bank policies.
The chart below from Goldman Sachs research shows that short interest for the S&P 500 Index are at all-time lows. In other words, those that are betting on the index falling, are a very rare breed.
While major indices don’t show it, and most investors don’t see it, many parts of the technology sector are crashing. And by that, I mean that many stocks have been falling for months now, even if this internal technology correction has not affected the major indices (yet).
As we have said many times over the past several months, while the market as a whole is not in bubble territory, many parts of the market are. In particular, the technology sector is as expensive as I have ever seen. In fact, one of my worries has been that when the technology sector did correct, it might bring down the entire market.
A short while ago I questioned if 2021 might be a sell the COVID 19 vaccine news trade. I said it probably won’t, because central banks will keep pumping liquidity. However, a new twist is now unfolding, and that is higher bond yields.
When 100% of outstanding shares are shorted in any stock, you get a sort of a black hole short interest phenomenon. In other words, even if someone covers his shorts, someone comes on top and shorts even more shares.
I have never subscribed to the theory that interest rate differentials are what determine the value of currencies. Yes, differentials do play a role, but in my opinion a lot less than most people think. While the yield spread between 10-year US treasuries and 10-year Bunds has increased, this has not stopped the dollar falling almost 10% vs the Euro.
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